2017年7月4日火曜日

AI: the end of a human era

I recently had a chance to discuss about artificial intelligence (AI) with an expert. He noted that the theory of current AI was already established in the 1960s, but the vast amount of available data has made the recent exponential advancement possible.

Here are some recent developments:

-          The world’s strongest players of chess, shogi (Japanese chess) and Go are AI.
-          AI audio speakers are able to optimize the sound effect in response to their location and environment, making sound effect professionals or audio maniacs obsolete.
-          AI HR can better predict people who will leave their job than human staff.
-          AI navigators identify where people want to take a taxi, allowing taxi drivers to pick them up immediately.

A joint survey published in late May 2017 by Oxford and Yale says: “Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a truck (by 2027), working in retail (by 2031), writing a bestselling book (by 2049), and working as a surgeon (by 2053). Researchers believe there is a 50% chance of AI outperforming humans in all tasks in 45 years and of automating all human jobs in 120 years, with Asian respondents expecting these dates much sooner than North Americans.”

The survey predicted that it would still take 17.6 years for AI to outperform the world’s best Go player, but by the time the survey came out, that had actually happened according to press reports.

Because I am already fifty, if AI surpassed my work performance – hopefully that won’t happen at least in the next few years – I could retire. But young people, especially students, should be in a very difficult position because once they graduate or even during their time at school, their jobs based on their study might be no longer needed.